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Regime Playbook PRO

What historically works in each environment. Not advice — context.

🟢 Risk-On
🟡 Neutral
🔴 Risk-Off
RISK-ON
Liquidity expanding, risk appetite elevated, trend favors bulls
+18.4%
Avg BTC return (60d)
72%
Win rate (60d)
14
Historical occurrences
What historically outperforms
  • ↑
    High-beta altcoins SOL, AVAX, MATIC tend to outperform BTC by 1.5-2x
  • ↑
    DeFi tokens TVL-correlated assets benefit from liquidity expansion
  • ↑
    Leveraged positions Trend continuation favors directional bets (with stops)
What to watch for
  • !
    Funding rate spike above 0.05% Signal of overleveraged longs, pullback risk increases
  • !
    Liquidity Index crossing below 65 Early warning of regime shift
NEUTRAL
Mixed signals, range-bound conditions, await clarity
+4.2%
Avg BTC return (60d)
54%
Win rate (60d)
8
Historical occurrences
What historically works
  • →
    BTC dominance plays Capital rotates to BTC in uncertain conditions
  • →
    Range trading strategies Mean reversion works until breakout
  • →
    Reduced position sizing Lower conviction = lower exposure
RISK-OFF
Liquidity contracting, fear elevated, capital preservation mode
-12.8%
Avg BTC return (60d)
31%
Win rate (60d)
6
Historical occurrences
What historically survives
  • ✓
    Stablecoins / Cash Capital preservation is the priority
  • ✓
    BTC over altcoins Flight to quality within crypto
  • ✓
    Dry powder accumulation Best opportunities come from capitulation

⚠️ Capitulation Watch

Risk-off regimes historically end with capitulation events. Watch for: VIX spike + exchange inflows surge + funding deeply negative. These often mark local bottoms.

Disclaimer: This is historical context, not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Regime classifications are based on WealthData's proprietary indicators and may differ from other methodologies. Always do your own research and consider your risk tolerance before making any investment decisions.