Transition Probabilities (30d)
→ Stay RISK-ON
68%
→ Shift NEUTRAL
24%
→ Shift RISK-OFF
8%
Trigger Proximity
Liquidity Index < 65
--
Funding > 0.05%
--
Fear < 25
--
Conditional Expectations
IF regime holds 30d
BTC +12.4% (±8.2%)
IF shift to NEUTRAL
BTC +2.1% (±6.8%)
WD Liquidity Index™
WEEKS
--
Range: -- – --
--
Fed + stablecoin + exchange reserves
Historical accuracy: 71% (n=23)
WD Risk Score™
WEEKS
--
Range: -- – --
--
VIX + leverage + sentiment blend
Historical accuracy: 74% (n=18)
Exchange Net Flow
DAYS
--
24h aggregate
--
BTC + ETH exchange balance Δ
Historical accuracy: 64% (n=31)
Funding Rate
HOURS
--
8h weighted avg
--
Perps funding across exchanges
Historical accuracy: 52% (n=45)
WD Crypto Pulse™
SENTIMENT
--
Range: 78 – 84
--
ETF + on-chain + sentiment breadth
Historical accuracy: 68% (n=27)
Net Liquidity Model
PROPRIETARY
Fed Balance - TGA - RRP
$6.12T
+0.79%
Fed Balance
$7.42T
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TGA
$742B
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RRP
$580B
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Net Liquidity
--
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On-Chain Metrics (BTC)
INSTITUTIONAL
MVRV Ratio
BULLISH
2.34
Not overheated (<3.5)
SOPR
BULLISH
1.02
Profit taking minimal
NVT Signal
NEUTRAL
58.2
Fair value zone
Exchange Reserve
BULLISH
2.31M
5-year low
Active Addresses
BULLISH
1.02M
+8% vs 30d avg
Accumulation Score
BULLISH
0.89
Strong accumulation
Live Markets
Whale Tracker
LIVE
Live Signals
Positioning Data
COT
Asset Managers
+142K
Leveraged Funds
-89K
Dealer Gamma
+$4.2B
Economic Calendar
08:30
Tomorrow
14:00
Wed
08:30
Thu
10:00
Fri